Photovoltaics has experienced significant growth in recent years, with Italy at the forefront of the transition to a sustainable future. This transition has been propelled by a confluence of innovations and incentives, resulting in a 88% reduction in the cost of photovoltaic energy (from 42 to 5 cents/kWh) and a 55% decrease in the cost of installation (from 4,808 €/kW in 2010 to 857 € in 2021). These developments have rendered photovoltaics increasingly competitive. Italy experienced a surge in installations between 2007 and 2012, largely driven by the Conto Energia incentives, and currently boasts 25 GW of installed capacity, ranking 8th globally. The nation also has approximately 1.2 million systems, predominantly residential and commercial. The European Green Deal aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, and the REPowerEU plan aims to install 600 GW of photovoltaics by 2030. The PNRR has allocated €59.46 billion to reach 72% renewable energy by 2030. Social networks also play a crucial role in PV adoption: the 'peer effect' and word-of-mouth encourage expansion, showing how the energy transition is also cultural. With lower costs, favourable regulations and increasing social awareness, photovoltaics has the potential to be a pillar of Italy's energy transition.
Literature review
A comprehensive review of extant literature reveals that photovoltaic systems are pivotal to global strategies for the energy transition. Studies from the Netherlands, Germany and Japan offer a detailed depiction of the interactions between government policies, socio-technical dynamics and user behaviour, emphasizing common barriers and opportunities to overcome them. The Dutch case is a particularly salient example in understanding how effective regulations, economic incentives and public awareness can stimulate large-scale adoption of renewable technologies. This comparative approach enables the identification of strategies applicable to the Italian context, taking into account local peculiarities.
Research objectives
The objective of this research is to provide an answer to the following question: what is the current state and future potential of the photovoltaic panel market in Italy? In order to achieve this aim, the following main objectives have been identified:
A comparison of photovoltaics with other forms of renewable energy will be made, with an analysis of the advantages, disadvantages and complementary role in the energy landscape.
To explore economic, social and technical factors: assessing the variables influencing decisions on plant adoption and deployment.
The identification of market segments and growth opportunities is to be focused on residential homeowners and commercial and industrial operators, who are key targets for the development of the sector.
The medium to long-term growth potential (5-10 years) will be evaluated, and forecasts on market development according to existing investments and policies will be provided.
The analysis focuses on two key groups: residential homeowners, which include those who have already adopted or are considering the installation of photovoltaic systems, and commercial and industrial operators, who are seen as key players in promoting the development of large-scale systems and contributing significantly to national energy targets.
Research Methodology
The methodology of this research combines qualitative and quantitative approaches in order to analyse in depth the factors influencing PV adoption in Italy. In-depth interviews were utilised to ascertain consumers' perceived motivations and barriers, thereby providing a detailed and nuanced perspective on their experiences. This method involved both residential homeowners who had already adopted photovoltaic systems and energy experts, such as consultants and installers, to complement the professional perspective.
Concurrently, a quantitative analysis was conducted using a structured questionnaire, administered to a sample of 213 participants via CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing). The questionnaire, divided into four sections, collected socio-demographic, behavioural and preference data, which were subsequently analysed using SPSS software. This mixed approach was deemed to be the most appropriate for the study, as it was expected to provide a comprehensive overview by integrating qualitative and quantitative data to meet the research objectives.
Data analysis
The analysis of the data was conducted using SPSS software and addressed the primary objectives of the research. A salient analysis was conducted on the social factors influencing the decision to adopt PV, demonstrating a significant association between the level of information and the consulted sources.
Individuals with a high level of information tend to prefer institutional and formal sources, perceived as more credible. Those with a moderate level of information also lean towards formal sources, but with less emphasis on institutional sources. Conversely, individuals with a low level of information rely primarily on personal networks or abstain from seeking information altogether. This analysis underscores the pivotal role that the quality and accessibility of information sources play in the decision-making process.
In order to achieve the research objective of market segmentation and growth opportunities, a factor analysis was conducted in order to identify five key factors: the complete package, technical evaluations, hesitancy, harmonious beauty and added value.
Subsequent to this, a cluster analysis was performed, which resulted in the identification of four homogeneous consumer clusters, each of which exhibited distinctive characteristics.
The results of the cluster analysis show well-defined consumer profiles:
Cluster 1 “The architects” (28%) attach great importance to technical evaluations and added value. Their focus is on structural compatibility, reliability and financial benefits, taking a pragmatic and rational approach to decision-making.
Cluster 2 “The hesitant” (30%) show high scores in the factors of hesitation and harmonious appearance. This cluster is characterised by caution, with a need for clear information and reassurance. They also show sensitivity to aesthetic aspects and personal reservations.
Cluster 3 “The aesthetes” (20%) prioritise harmonious appearance, de-emphasising all other factors, such as the ‘complete package’. This group places visual and aesthetic integration at the center of their decisions, showing less interest in practical or financial aspects.
Cluster 4 “The meticulous” (22%) distinguish themselves by a strong preference for the ‘complete package’, with a focus on efficiency, maintenance and overall performance. This cluster reflects a preference for all-inclusive, high-quality solutions.
In order to assess the growth potential of the photovoltaic industry, a conjoint analysis was conducted that estimated consumer preferences with high accuracy, as evidenced by Pearson's R of 0.997.
The almost perfect correlation between the observed and estimated preferences confirms the reliability of the adopted model. The table of importance values demonstrates that the most salient attribute for consumers is 'services included', followed by type of installation and payback time.
The utility results indicate a consumer preference for residential installations, as indicated by a score of +0.399, a return on investment within 8 years, as indicated by a score of +0.201, a 90% return guarantee over 10 years, as indicated by a score of +0.111, and maintenance services included, as indicated by a score of +0.455. Conversely, options such as commercial or industrial installations, extended payback periods, and the absence of maintenance services are less appealing to consumers. The type of incentive also plays an important role: the 50% direct invoice discount is preferred over other options such as tax deduction.
Consumer preferences are evident in their clear inclination towards solutions that offer a combination of rapid payback, long-term efficiency guarantees, and comprehensive installation and maintenance packages.
In conclusion, a location map was developed to compare solar energy with other forms of renewable energy, including hydro, wind, biomass and geothermal.
The findings indicate that solar energy emerges as a high-performing, readily accessible, and cost-effective option. However, it is important to note its limitation in terms of consistency in supply when compared to other sources. Conversely, hydropower has been demonstrated to be a reliable and efficient source of energy, with a consistent supply. Geothermal energy, while sharing hydropower's reliability, is less convenient. Conversely, wind energy is adversely impacted by its visual impact, despite its potential. Biomass, while not as extensively utilised, is a viable option, though it does not currently generate significant consumer interest.
Conclusions and Managerial Implications
The findings of this research provide valuable insights to guide future strategies and managerial decisions in the photovoltaic sector. Solar panels are perceived as a highly effective and convenient solution compared to other renewable energy sources, owing to their accessibility, practicality, and reduced environmental impact. However, high initial costs and regional disparities, particularly in Central and Southern Italy, represent significant obstacles. Economic incentives and technological advancements are crucial to overcoming these barriers.
The analysis highlights the importance of promoting "turnkey" solutions, which encompass installation, maintenance, and long-term warranties, to meet the needs of diverse consumers. Targeted awareness campaigns and the simplification of bureaucratic processes are essential to bridging informational gaps and encouraging broader adoption.
Furthermore, companies should invest in innovative financing models and marketing strategies that emphasize the long-term environmental and economic benefits of photovoltaic systems. Promoting sustainability and tailoring offerings to the needs of various market segments can accelerate the country’s energy transition.
Limitations and Directions for Future Research
Despite its significant findings, this research presents some limitations. The concentration of the sample in Northern Italy may have influenced the conclusions, overlooking the dynamics of Central and Southern regions, which hold considerable potential for photovoltaics. Future studies could include a more representative sample to better explore these areas.
Another limitation concerns the complexity of the questionnaire, which resulted in a high dropout rate. Employing more intuitive tools could improve response rates. Additionally, some analyses did not yield statistically significant results, underscoring the need to deepen the understanding of public awareness levels.
Finally, challenges related to high initial costs and bureaucratic complexity warrant further investigation. Qualitative interviews could enrich the understanding of adoption barriers. Future research could also focus on the impact of energy communities and the optimization of public incentives to maximize adoption and support the development of the photovoltaic market in Italy.
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